After the first game of the NBA Finals, an altogether riveting affair, I must be honest and admit that the most interesting part of the Association to consider right now is not an evenly matched finals but rather free agency 2014. Of course this is an interesting period for the Cavaliers as they have a plethora of assets, but really a mediocre collection of commodities to choose from.
In terms of the league itself there are some big names Dwight Howard, Josh Smith and even Nikola Pekovic, but none of them will be the headlining star on a championship team. I know Cleveland fans have fallen in love with the idea of using the team’s assets on guys like LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Love, or my boy Boogie (Demarcus) Cousins.
In all reality, if any of these guys can be added for the right price it would make the Cavalier’s an instant playoff team; but to contend in the Eastern Conference in the next six years will all depend on where King James calls home. Whether or not Lebron calls Miami, Cleveland or somewhere still unknown home in 2015, it will undoubtedly determine the makeup of playoff contenders through 2020.
All this being understood, I will now be putting on my “Lebron Cap.” What I mean by putting the cap on is that I will attempt to look through his eyes at the mess awaits him entering the summer of 2014. I will be evaluating the different possibilities based on two specific criteria: first, how it will affect his brand and second whether the pieces are in place for him to compete for a championship over the long haul.
Miami Heat:
Brand Impact: Upon entering Miami the only thing that could rebuild the Lebron brand were rings and a familial relationship with Miami’s favored son Dwyane Wade. Staying in Miami for the remainder of the contract creates important trust in Lebron for honoring his long term commitment to Miami and the attainment of multiple championship trophies as a member of the “big three”.
Furthermore, an early exit quickly turns Lebron into a player who always believes the grass is greener on the other side. In terms of legacy and the discussion of greatness bolting from Miami would cement the idea that he is unable to win with just an average supporting cast. From then on any comparison to Jordan would revolve around Lebron shifting incessantly to have the support he needed to win championships.
Brand Impact Grade A-
Surrounding Cast: The 2013 Playoffs have made one thing clear to Lebron, the pieces surrounding him have a clear and approaching expiration date. In fact, his next season in Miami may be the last season when Bosh and Wade can be counted on for “elite” production.
I am of the volition that Bosh was overpaid from the start and really this is an ideal role for him, the third best player on a championship level team. Wade, however, is a major concern. Once an elite finisher and scorer, injuries as well as age have sapped Wade into a shell of what he once was. In other situations, these pieces could be moved and after a year they could rebuild around Lebron. Except Miami is a distinct situation, Bosh while still an above average performer has three years left on a nearly untradeable contract.
Wade is another case; Dwyane is to Miami what Vizquel was to Cleveland. Wade clearly thinks that he has another three-five years left in the tank and if he adapts that is quite possible, but the sun has set on him as a star performer. As Miami’s favored son, it would be nearly impossible for the Heat not to extend Wade for a somewhat sizable figure.
In which case, keeping the big three together without paying insane luxury tax costs is undoable. And if they all remain, holding on to other necessary parts and adding another important starter to cover Wade and Bosh’s regression is unattainable. This is without discussing the possible loss or salary increase for Mario Chalmers after 2014.
Lebron understands that both Wade and Bosh are immovable contracts at this point and as their production continues to decrease their hold on cap space increases.
Surrounding Cast over the next five years: B
Cleveland:
Brand Impact: While the story of the return of prodigal son would receive excessive positive media attention, I doubt it would gain the sort of national recognition that most Ohioans expect. Although the decision is viewed by the sports collective as a relatively heinous offense, most nationally have become ambivalent on the situation choosing to enjoy the basketball brilliance they are witnessing rather than obsess over past transgressions.
Undoubtedly, Lebron would win over a majority of the fan base he once dumped but in terms of national perception, it would not tremendously outweigh the respect of playing out his time in Miami. Also in terms of a media market Cleveland is small potatoes compared to the glamour that is Miami.
Brand Impact Grade: B
Surrounding Cast: This is a tougher piece to evaluate because this roster will largely be in flux over the next year as they attempt to move assets around. One thing is obvious in terms of having a star next to him over the next five years Kyrie Irving has to be at the top of the list. Kyrie has snuck his way into the top fifteen players in the NBA after only his second season. Kyrie right now is better than what Dwyane Wade was in his prime.
However, there is one important thing for Lebron to monitor over the next year and that is Kyrie’s health. If Irving can prove that he can play seventy-five games this season then Lebron has the elite running mate that he needs for the next five years.
The next year will be a major litmus test for this roster in Lebron’s eyes, trying to figure out what Dion Waiters can do, whether Tristan Thompson is a starter on a championship competitor and if they can bring in one or two more good parts.
Surrounding Cast for the next five years: B+
Who knows where he goes, but Cleveland is appetizing and Miami looks limiting in the long term. I did not explore Los Angeles for a few quick reasons: first Lebron does not want the pressure of being the heir to the Kobe throne. Second, if they lock-up Howard the cap work would be challenging and I doubt Lebron thinks he complements Dwight Howard. Finally it is very destructive to his brand outside of the size of the media market. In terms of loyalty and respect a move to L.A. would be a fatal mistake.
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