Right now the Spurs are up 3-0 and the Heat are up 2-1. Both teams are going to the NBA Finals with a nice bit of momentum. (Or hopefully that last sentenced jinxed one of the teams into a historical comeback). (**Editor’s Note: It’s Tuesday morning and the Spurs have swept the Grizzlies. Let’s go, San Antonio!)
If I was a gambler and was forced to bet on the finals it should come as no surprise I’m betting it on the Heat. The Heat are the more efficient (49% FG) than the Spurs (46%) in FG percentage and are the same team that went on an absolutely ludicrous 27 game win streak that won’t be matched until at least the 2013-2014 NBA season when a retooled Heat go at it again. They also have the best player in the series in LeBron James and I don’t need to give statistics to tell you what he means.
The bottom line is that the Heat will win and it probably won’t be that close (6 games would be a LOT). But that isn’t fun. I want a game 7; with a buzzer beater. I want the Heat-Spurs 2013 series to be memorable and for the Spurs to compete. So here’s my case for how the Spurs could maybe just maybe probably unlikely but maybe dethrone the Miami Heat:
San Antonio Can Out Three Miami - San Antonio has taken more threes than Miami in the Playoffs (1 more 3pt attempt per game). They have hit there 3s at a much higher percentage than Miami (37% to 34%). That alone bodes well for San Antonio. But it goes even further: The Spurs have less 3pt attempts against them. The numbers are less profound in the playoffs (especially because the Spurs had to play a series against the 3pt happy Warriors) but in general teams take and make less 3 pointers against the Spurs and more against the heat. Miami in the regular season averaged 21.7 three-point attempts against them, a mark that made them 7th highest in the NBA. The Spurs averaged 17.9, the leagues 5th lowest number and one that could have a huge impact.
So what’s the reason for those major differences? Two things. One is that Miami plays with a big lead more often and teams jack some more threes to catch up, that is undoubtedly true except when you look at the 3point % made the two teams were very close on the season (within .3% of each other)
The other thing that it means is that the Spurs are smart, good defenders who don’t allow teams to take a lot of threes, and when they do take them they defend them well. You can credit Pop for this, the veterans on the roster, and guys like Kawhi Leonard who are long and often defending the other teams best three-point threat.
If Miami get’s out-3d by the Spurs and the Spurs hit there 3s at the level that they have been (ideally a little bit better, getting nearer to that 40% mark would be a game-changer), the series could be close.
Tony Parker has a decent matchup with the Spurs – Assuming that the Heat, at least at first, don’t do something crazy defensively with Tony Parker (putting Lebron or Wade on him leaving Leonard or Ginobli with a favorable matchup) Parker is probably going to have a decent series.
George Hill who averages a career 10ppg was able to have 18 and 19-point performances against Miami. I don’t need to go into what Nate Robinson did against the Heat to prove that Miami has had a tough time covering PGs but I will remind everyone that when Nate Rob was hitting, he was able to have spreads that read something like 17 and 7, 21 and 6, and even a monstrous 27 and 9.
Oh yeah and Tony Parker is somewhere between a thousand to a million times better than George Hill and Nate Robinson. The bottom line is that Norris Cole and Mario Chalmers are struggling defensively and Tony Parker has a chance to abuse them. This could bode well for the Spurs until Spoelstra makes the switch and puts a good defender on Parker, but knowing Spoelstra this is going to happen after about 3 games in which the Spurs could steal win or two.
Tim Duncan has a Great Matchup – Big Men have been doing pretty well against Miami! Hibbert has played very well and is the reason the Pacers have won a game at all (2 if you count the overtime game that the Pacers would have one if they didn’t bench Hibbert). Noah also put up pretty solid numbers against the Heat despite being riddled by injuries. Duncan is arguably better than both those guys (although I won’t argue it) and could do decently well against the Heat because of it. The Heat are small and where that helps them in running the floor on transition it hurts them in rebounding and defending other big men. If Tim Duncan somehow steps into the time machine and has a vintage Timmy 20-25 and 15-20 rebound series the Spurs can easily compete with Miami.
San Antonio Will Out Coach Miami – This is just a simple fact. Gregg Poppovich is a better coach than Erik Spoelstra and it shows. This one is harder to back up with stats, since for me at least it’s mostly an eye test thing. Poppovich calls better timeouts, has better defensive rotations and plays with lineups that are less likely to make me throw my remote through the T.V. then Spoelstra does. Offensively the Spurs seem to take better shots then the Heat, and this probably has a lot to do with the veterans on the Spurs roster as well, but the Spurs look like a better-oiled machine than the Heat do, on both ends of the court.
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So that’s as good of a case as I can make: the Spurs best two players are going against apparent weakness for Miami. Poppovich is a better coach than Spoelstra and leads a group of very experienced veterans into battle. The Spurs also could potentially light up the Heat from 3 to help and neutralize the Heats offensive presence. The Heat still have Lebron though so they’re probably going to win, I’m just hoping for a series.
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